Market Size Projections Based on the Age Structural Changes of Households in Japan

Kohei Wada, Chuo University

The purpose of this research is to realize the future market size in the light of demographic changes, especially low fertility and aging in Japan. I applied the householders’ age-based method to market size projection under the limitations of consumption statistics. Namely the future level of consumption should be projected with linking the number of households and the age of the head of a household. As the results, in accordance with the characteristics of goods or services, each age consumption pattern is classified into a few types: the older consumer-oriented type, the younger consumer-oriented type, and the age independent type. Most of the markets in Japan tend to shrink in the long term except a few older-oriented typed markets. Finally several market sizes will be projected by 2030 as case studies. Among them are the markets for financial products and medical services, which will be given the particulars.