Parity Progression and Birth Interval Analysis: An Implication for Under-Five Mortality in Ekiti State, Southwestern Nigeria

Ayo S. Adebowale, University of Ibadan
Joshua O. Akinyemi, University of Ibadan

Various factors have been examined for under-five mortality. However, in Ekiti State, Nigeria, such studies failed to include parity progression and birth interval among key variables. This study uses a stratified multi-stage sampling technique to select 1,450 women of childbearing age from a cross-sectional household survey in Ekiti. Data analyses showed that the probability of progressing from lower parity to the next higher parity was consistently greater among women who experienced under-five mortality than their counterparts who did not. Cox-proportional hazard multivariate model revealed that increased under-five mortality risks were found to be associated with birth intervals of less than 24 months (RR=3.6, p<0.01), 24-35 months (RR=1.87, p<0.01) and above 60 months (RR=1.27, p>0.05) relative to birth intervals of three to five years, thus justifying the U-shaped interval effect. The effect persists when potentially confounding variables were used as control.