Facts on the Seashore: Conflict, Population Displacement, and Coastal Vulnerability on the Eve of the Sri Lankan Tsunami

Randall Kuhn, University of Denver

The concept of a complex emergency implies a negative interaction between manmade and natural disaster, yet few studies have quantified the magnitude or nature of such interactions. This study studies the impact of population movements during the Sri Lanka civil war on the Boxing Day Tsunami. In contrast to Northern Sri Lanka, which saw wholesale ethnic cleansing, eastern Sri Lanka experienced a gradual and selective process of political and economic exclusion, resulting in the net migration of socioeconomically disadvantaged minority populations towards previously unsettled coastal areas. I quantify these effects, finding that a large majority of homes destroyed in the tsunami did not exist prior to the civil war. Coastal population growth rates were substantially higher than those found in comparable interior areas, as were aggregate rates of socioeconomic vulnerability. Specific instances of displacements and encroachment illustrate how conflict creates incentives for population exposure to environmental risk.