A Demographic Analysis of U.S. Homeownership Rates from 2000 to 2009

John Pitkin, Analysis and Forecasting, Inc.

This paper investigates an important and so far neglected piece of the puzzle of the dimensions and causes of the economic catastrophe known as the great housing bubble. It will apply methods of demographic analysis to measure annual changes in homeownership rates for birth and nativity cohorts from 2000 to 2009 using American Community Survey PUMS data. Homeownership is a key indicator of housing status that is well measured in demographic surveys. The paper seeks to understand with precision the net attainment to and departure from homeownership of cohorts defined by year of birth and nativity. It also seeks to demonstrate methods that might be applied to the same processes in earlier years. Economists have been so far “unable to offer much of an explanation for what happened” in the housing bubble.

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Presented in Session 75: Using the American Community Survey